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И докато чакам @zarrini да сподели кога е правил проучване, нещо интересно за четене:
What is China's future in the next 25 years?
Well, let's begin with an understanding that China is an extraordinarily poor country.
About 600 million Chinese, according to Chinese statistics, live in households earning less than $2 a day. Another 400 million live in households earning between $2 and $4 a day. That means 1 billion Chinese live in abject poverty. The China we think of, the China where people are earning more than $20,000 a year, well, that China's maybe 60 million people.
It's large, it's the size of France, but it is a tiny fraction of China. And the reality is that China has entered a period of uneven development again where the coastal region—which is far more linked to Wal-Mart than it is to the rest of China—has done relatively well. The interior of China really hasn't participated to a great extent. And more to the point, China's hostage to its customers.
It's an export-oriented economy, and if Wal-Mart isn't buying, if Carrefour isn't buying—the Chinese really can't sell those products in the interior. So China's a country that has had a tremendous bounce—of course, because it bounced back from Maoism where China was shattered. It has done magnificently well in the past 30 years, recovering.
Now it's hitting the hard part. And that hard part is going to mean a lot of internal tensions, much slower growth, and we shouldn't criticize China for this. They're just returning to being a normal country, like Japan did before them.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
"China will never be a democracy. I'm convinced of that. It's not in their DNA."
What are the big stories for the coming 25 years?
One of the big stories is going to be Africa. We don't realize, but Africa is going to be the future.
Everybody speaks about China, but what I've seen in Africa is the beginning of something. And in 25 years, it may be the New China. I know the Chinese are already there, by the way, because they have the feeling that this is where it is going to be. But I think it's going to be very interesting to see what is going to happen in Nigeria, in North Africa versus Central Africa and South Africa.